Hangar

Research tool, not investment advice. Contract values are not revenue. Every figure links to the government announcement it came from.

Pitches

long NOC 2026-11-09

Revenue grew 2% in 2025 while backlog is now rising 15%; I expect revenue growth to pick up

Status
open
Horizon
12 months
Author's position
does not hold NOC (on the pitch date)
Prices
NOC since 2026-11-09 on Yahoo Finance Hangar shows no prices (why)
Company
NOC awards, backlog and revenue

Personal opinion of a student, not investment advice.

Thesis

Northrop Grumman's revenue grew from $41.03 billion in 2024 (10-K) to $41.95 billion in 2025 (10-K), about 2%, the slowest among the large defense primes with 2025 figures on Hangar (L3Harris's 2025 revenue is not available in its XBRL data).

Its remaining performance obligations (RPO) rose from $95.7 billion at December 31, 2025 (same 10-K) to $109.6 billion at September 30, 2026 (10-Q), up 15% in nine months. RPO is about 2.6 times 2025 revenue.

My view: backlog growing this much faster than revenue should lift revenue growth above 2025's 2%.

Evidence

Catalysts

Risks / what would prove me wrong

Valuation

No view on valuation here: this is a call on revenue growth, and Hangar shows no prices. A student's opinion, not investment advice.

Fingerprint (SHA-256) 602fef7b64d0d9e617244918424234f565b5c76ce14cf4774ea122d33f25d5df
First published 2026-11-09
Internet Archive copy

Update 2026-11-09

Adding the price side of the pitch, which the original left out.

Entry price: $525.01, NOC's closing price on Friday, November 6, 2026, the last close before this pitch was published (looked up on Yahoo Finance). SPY (an S&P 500 fund) closed at $735.29 that day, so the pitch can be scored against the market.

Valuation: enterprise value to sales (EV/sales). Enterprise value is the share price times shares outstanding, plus debt, minus cash. Prices are Friday, November 6, 2026 closes from Yahoo Finance; everything else is from each company's latest SEC filing.

  • NOC: 2.0x. $525.01 × 142.1 million shares, $15,197 million debt, $3,744 million cash; revenue $43,591 million over the four quarters to September 30, 2026 (10-Q, 10-K).
  • LMT: 1.8x. $567.08 × 231.0 million shares, $20,498 million debt, $5,960 million cash; revenue $79,116 million over the four quarters to September 27, 2026 (10-Q, 10-K).
  • RTX: 3.0x. $189.53 × 1,349.4 million shares, $37,379 million debt, $9,173 million cash; revenue $95,987 million over the four quarters to September 30, 2026 (10-Q, 10-K).
  • General Dynamics (GD): 1.7x. $354.06 × 270.2 million shares, $7,016 million debt, $4,388 million cash; revenue $56,520 million over the four quarters to October 4, 2026 (10-Q, 10-K).

So Northrop is valued close to Lockheed and General Dynamics and below RTX.

12-month price target: $561 (up 7%). If revenue over the next four quarters grows 6% to about $46,210 million and Northrop keeps its 2.0x EV/sales, enterprise value reaches about $91,200 million; subtracting $15,197 million debt, adding $3,744 million cash and dividing by 142.1 million shares gives $561.35. I keep the multiple flat, so the target comes only from revenue growth.

This is the weakest of my long targets: 7% is not much more than the market might return anyway.

What changes the call: I'm wrong on the stock if it is below $525.01 in November 2027, or if it trails SPY's return over the same 12 months.

Fingerprint (SHA-256) 7bdf689bc538a45c2acdfd1b8eaa6c4157748f114591cf149395e3d3ec99256f
First published 2026-11-09
Internet Archive copy pending

What happened since

Hangar's own data on NOC after 2026-11-09, every number linked to its source. Contract announcements through 2026-11-06.

From SEC filingsKnown on 2026-11-09Latest
RPO (backlog) $109.60B $109.60B no new filing
Revenue, latest fiscal year $41.95B $41.95B no new filing

0 contract announcements since the pitch: $0 definite (0), $0 potential (0).