Thesis
GE Aerospace's remaining performance obligations (RPO) jumped from $190.6 billion at December 31, 2025 (10-K) to $211.3 billion at March 31, 2026 (10-Q), then stopped: $210.8 billion at June 30 (10-Q) and $212.1 billion at September 30, 2026 (10-Q).
Revenue grew from $38.7 billion in 2024 (10-K) to $45.9 billion in 2025 (10-K above), about 18%.
My view: when backlog stops growing, revenue growth that fast is hard to keep up, so I expect it to slow.
Evidence
- Two flat quarters of RPO, from the 10-Qs above. That is the whole case so far, and it is thin: one data series over six months.
- GE's earlier history is hard to compare because of the GE HealthCare (2023) and GE Vernova (2024) spin-offs, so I only use figures from 2025 on.
Catalysts
- The 2026 10-K and the 2027 quarterly reports: RPO and revenue growth.
Risks / what would prove me wrong
- Two flat quarters may just be timing: large orders arrive unevenly.
- Most of GE's revenue is commercial aircraft engines and services, which this site's defense data barely covers.
- I'm wrong if RPO is above $230 billion by September 2027, or if revenue for the four quarters ending September 2027 grows 15% or more compared with the four quarters before.
Valuation
No view on valuation here: this is a call on growth, and Hangar shows no prices. A student's opinion, not investment advice.