Hangar

Research tool, not investment advice. Contract values are not revenue. Every figure links to the government announcement it came from.

Pitches

long LMT 2026-11-09

Backlog up $113 billion in a year while revenue grew 6%; I expect growth to pick up

Status
open
Horizon
12 months
Author's position
does not hold LMT (on the pitch date)
Prices
LMT since 2026-11-09 on Yahoo Finance Hangar shows no prices (why)
Company
LMT awards, backlog and revenue

Personal opinion of a student, not investment advice.

Thesis

Lockheed Martin's remaining performance obligations (RPO) rose from $179.1 billion at September 28, 2025 (10-Q) to $292.0 billion at September 27, 2026 (10-Q), up 63%. Most of the increase came in two quarters: RPO was $230.4 billion at June 28, 2026 (10-Q).

Revenue grew from $71.0 billion in 2024 (10-K) to $75.0 billion in 2025 (10-K), about 6%. RPO is now about 3.9 times 2025 revenue.

My view: backlog growing ten times faster than revenue should lift revenue growth above 6%.

Evidence

Catalysts

Risks / what would prove me wrong

Valuation

No view on valuation here: this is a call on revenue growth, and Hangar shows no prices. A student's opinion, not investment advice.

Fingerprint (SHA-256) 4ff98087564a6d5e9f4e594a82f115b91e1de618097a3fd01ef5af38af6bfb8c
First published 2026-11-09
Internet Archive copy

Update 2026-11-09

Adding the price side of the pitch, which the original left out.

Entry price: $567.08, LMT's closing price on Friday, November 6, 2026, the last close before this pitch was published (looked up on Yahoo Finance). SPY (an S&P 500 fund) closed at $735.29 that day, so the pitch can be scored against the market.

Valuation: enterprise value to sales (EV/sales). Enterprise value is the share price times shares outstanding, plus debt, minus cash. Prices are Friday, November 6, 2026 closes from Yahoo Finance; everything else is from each company's latest SEC filing.

  • LMT: 1.8x. $567.08 × 231.0 million shares, $20,498 million debt, $5,960 million cash; revenue $79,116 million over the four quarters to September 27, 2026 (10-Q, 10-K).
  • RTX: 3.0x. $189.53 × 1,349.4 million shares, $37,379 million debt, $9,173 million cash; revenue $95,987 million over the four quarters to September 30, 2026 (10-Q, 10-K).
  • NOC: 2.0x. $525.01 × 142.1 million shares, $15,197 million debt, $3,744 million cash; revenue $43,591 million over the four quarters to September 30, 2026 (10-Q, 10-K).
  • General Dynamics (GD): 1.7x. $354.06 × 270.2 million shares, $7,016 million debt, $4,388 million cash; revenue $56,520 million over the four quarters to October 4, 2026 (10-Q, 10-K).

So Lockheed is valued in line with Northrop and General Dynamics and well below RTX, even though its backlog grew 63% in a year.

12-month price target: $630 (up 11%). If revenue over the next four quarters grows 10% to about $87,030 million and Lockheed keeps its 1.8x EV/sales, enterprise value reaches about $160,090 million; subtracting $20,498 million debt, adding $5,960 million cash and dividing by 231.0 million shares gives $630.08. I keep the multiple flat, so the target comes only from revenue growth.

What changes the call: I'm wrong on the stock if it is below $567.08 in November 2027, or if it trails SPY's return over the same 12 months.

Fingerprint (SHA-256) d26fd852571d1c051dae96f4dc99ec87c0ea730aad5f7bc575c65de0d30282c6
First published 2026-11-09
Internet Archive copy pending

What happened since

Hangar's own data on LMT after 2026-11-09, every number linked to its source. Contract announcements through 2026-11-06.

From SEC filingsKnown on 2026-11-09Latest
RPO (backlog) $292.00B $292.00B no new filing
Revenue, latest fiscal year $75.05B $75.05B no new filing

0 contract announcements since the pitch: $0 definite (0), $0 potential (0).